1y return+17.3%S&P 500 +20.9%
3y return+45.8%S&P 500 +68.5%
5y return+38.1%S&P 500 +74.5%
These returns are for its stock picks as disclosed on Form 13F: last quarter's holdings, valued at this quarter's prices. They miss trades within each quarter, short positions, options, bonds, cash and fees, so they aren't the returns its clients got.
$100 invested in its stock picks
Since December 31, 2020: $155 against $200 in the S&P 500.2
High Probability Advisors, LLCS&P 500 (SPY)
Top holdings
At the end of June 30, 2026. Change is in shares since the quarter before.2
| Stock | Value | Share of portfolio | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSLCGoldman Sachs Etf Tr | $117.3M | 12.5% | +4.9% |
| MTUMIshares Tr | $110.4M | 11.8% | +2.5% |
| Dimensional Etf TrustCUSIP 25434V831 | $67.2M | 7.2% | +6.1% |
| DYNFBlackrock Etf Trust | $59.9M | 6.4% | +5.9% |
| NYFIshares Tr | $51.5M | 5.5% | +23.3% |
| GSIEGoldman Sachs Etf Tr | $48.6M | 5.2% | +7.5% |
| DIHPDimensional Etf Trust | $44.6M | 4.8% | +7.0% |
| SCHOSchwab Strategic Tr | $42.5M | 4.5% | +4.5% |
| USMVIshares Tr | $40.2M | 4.3% | +6.0% |
| SCHRSchwab Strategic Tr | $38.8M | 4.2% | +23.7% |
| AVUVAmerican Centy Etf Tr | $36.9M | 3.9% | +5.4% |
| FVALFidelity Covington Trust | $34.6M | 3.7% | +4.5% |
| SPIBSpdr Series Trust | $31.4M | 3.4% | +5.4% |
| AVEMAmerican Centy Etf Tr | $28.0M | 3.0% | +5.3% |
| FQALFidelity Covington Trust | $27.8M | 3.0% | +4.6% |
| SHYGIshares Tr | $24.1M | 2.6% | +6.6% |
| IUSVIshares Tr | $20.9M | 2.2% | +6.2% |
| IVLUIshares Tr | $15.9M | 1.7% | +5.1% |
| GSSCGoldman Sachs Etf Tr | $15.4M | 1.7% | +5.6% |
| FNDCSchwab Strategic Tr | $14.9M | 1.6% | +5.6% |
| SPTLSpdr Series Trust | $11.9M | 1.3% | +12.6% |
| SPYState Str Spdr S&p 500 Etf T | $9.5M | 1.0% | |
| SPYMSpdr Series Trust | $5.2M | 0.6% | +6.1% |
| VTEBVanguard Mun Bd Fds | $4.8M | 0.5% | +32.7% |
| IWVIshares Tr | $2.2M | 0.2% |
Best picks still held
How each current holding has done since the quarter it first appeared in its filings (up to six years back).
| Stock | Held since | Return since | Now worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies PLCCUSIP G8994E103 | June 30, 2023 | +156.8% | $668K |
| AAPLApple Inc | December 31, 2020 | +118.1% | $1.4M |
| MTUMIshares Tr | December 31, 2020 | +112.6% | $110.4M |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc | June 30, 2025 | +102.8% | $767K |
| SPYState Str Spdr S&p 500 Etf T | December 31, 2020 | +99.7% | $9.5M |
| FVALFidelity Covington Trust | December 31, 2020 | +91.9% | $34.6M |
| IWVIshares Tr | December 31, 2020 | +90.7% | $2.2M |
| ACWXIshares Tr | September 30, 2022 | +90.2% | $1.2M |
| FQALFidelity Covington Trust | December 31, 2020 | +89.1% | $27.8M |
| GSLCGoldman Sachs Etf Tr | December 31, 2020 | +87.5% | $117.3M |
Sold off last quarter
- IAUIshares Gold Tr was $238K
- TNGYTortoise Capital Series Trus was $148K
Quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Its picks | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | +11.9% | +14.8% |
| March 31, 2026 | −1.5% | −4.6% |
| December 31, 2025 | +1.1% | +2.4% |
| September 30, 2025 | +5.2% | +7.8% |
| June 30, 2025 | +7.4% | +10.5% |
| March 31, 2025 | −0.3% | −4.6% |
| December 31, 2024 | −2.1% | +2.1% |
| September 30, 2024 | +5.6% | +5.4% |
| June 30, 2024 | +0.6% | +4.0% |
| March 31, 2024 | +6.0% | +10.0% |
| December 31, 2023 | +9.0% | +11.2% |
| September 30, 2023 | −3.3% | −3.6% |
| June 30, 2023 | +2.9% | +8.3% |
| March 31, 2023 | +4.1% | +7.0% |
| December 31, 2022 | +8.0% | +7.1% |
| September 30, 2022 | −6.4% | −5.3% |
| June 30, 2022 | −11.5% | −16.5% |
| March 31, 2022 | −5.2% | −4.9% |
| December 31, 2021 | +5.1% | +10.7% |
| September 30, 2021 | −0.7% | +0.3% |
Sources
Every number on this page points here. Each one links to the public record.
- 1SEC EDGAR: High Probability Advisors, LLC Form 13F filingshttps://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=2039415&type=13F-HR&dateb=&owner=include&count=40CIK 2039415
- 2SEC: 13F for the quarter ended June 30, 2026https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2039415/000208585326000697/Filed July 13, 2026 · accession 0002085853-26-000697